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Just curious, how often are you 100% sure of your pick and then how often not.
I have two coming that I am sure of and three that at least I didn't pay much.
John
So sad ... My reverse consumption engine was a broken fuel gauge ... gonna look at coins now. John
You're going to get a variety of answers, I'm sure. My method was to bid according to what I was sure of. For example, I once bought a collection of miscellaneous coins with crappy pics....but I could see one that was a 1909-S for sure....I bid according to what dates I could see and figured I could get my money back if nothing else....the 1909-S turned out to also have a vdb on the reverse. I never took any huge risks unless something was noted in the auction and it meant I could rely on returning the coin...regardless if the seller took returns or not. The buyer protection saved my butt a few times.
This depends on a lot of factors to me. I am nearly always on a budget, so I try to be at least 95% sure. That usually means, seeing the variety as well as also seeing one or more confirming die markers. However, if the coin is really nice to begin with (one I would be happy keeping even if its not a variety), then I will take more risks. Sometimes, I will buy a nice looking coin, just because the mint mark is in the right position for a rare variety - a major roll of the dice. Those still work out more often than not so I keep doing it. This works better for the earlier dates where there were fewer dies used and fewer mint mark positions to look for.
I'm about 95% sure that I'm buying what I think I'm trying to pick. I haven't took the leap in a few that I been watching because of the pictures and prices. Wouldn't hurt if the seller has a return policy. Usually when I pick I go for graded coins so just incase I can always sell it as it is. Never happened yet but never know
It depends on the buy price, if I bid on it for below the price of a non variety then I'll chance it even if I'm not sure. Only if I'm sure of the variety I'll bid higher but even then I factor in that the coin might not be the one pictured so I'll still bid less than I would if the seller clearly showed and claimed it was a variety.
I'de say most of the time I'm pretty sure. Most of my picks are afordable and don't bother me too much on a failed pick. I don't mind taking a shot when I'm not to sure if the coin by itself has value I can resell it for. Of course every once and a while I gamble on something potentially rare. Recently it was a 37-D PCGS MS66 for $32 with crazy hopes of RPM-003. It was a failed atempt!
Last edited by mrmike916; 11-15-2015, 04:40 PM.
Reason: RPM-003, not 004!
I had a failed buy come in yesterday. Don't remember buying it. I looked on ebay and sure enough. Must of been a long one that night cuz I have no clue that I did that. It was a 1925S which didn't look like it was anything in the picture. PCGS xf40rb but it was only $9 so o well. Couple times before I fell asleep laying in bed with my phone in hand looking for picks and almost bought something from my thumb being on the phone. I woke up when I dropped it and hit myself in the face...thank you samsung!!..lol
What makes someone send a normal 1925S wheat in that grades at xf40?. Waste of money if you ask me
Well so far two of my maybe's which grew to four maybe's have come in and are a very nice 19-s and a 29-s but not varieties . All four maybe's only put me out less than 30 bucks and resale will net some back. One of the sure things has come in and that one makes up for the rest. Soon as I get time for pics I'll post it.
John
So sad ... My reverse consumption engine was a broken fuel gauge ... gonna look at coins now. John
I'm learning to look at my pricier gambles more mathematically. I made my living playing poker for a few years. If I had a pretty good read on my opponents, and the pot was laying me $2000 for a $100 call, then I only had to be right 1 time in 20 or 5% to break even. Some of our coins will lay even better odds than that. In short, a pure guess=no buy. An educated guess =I have too much gamble in me not to take a shot!
I don't have the funds to go crazy, but when I am pretty sure about something on ebay I am probably sure at least 95% of the time I get what I thought I was getting. Once in a while I am wrong. But I don't do this often enough. Anyone want to loan me a few thousand LOL?
I call it gambling. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Overall, I break even and try to keep it that way. As a good collector friend once told me ( and surfing buddy) be patient. Another one will come along eventually if your not sure.
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. This works better for the earlier dates where there were fewer dies used and fewer mint mark positions to look for.
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