Population and Value for Major Varieties versus Traditional Keys

[hbarbee]

I keep records for coins in my Lincoln collection showing the PCGS and NGC population for the same grade as mine as well as the number that have graded higher. It is clear that the major varieties do not command anywhere near the values that the "traditional" key coins do. For example, the 1909-S VDB in PCGS MS64RB and has a population of 2910/4650 (same/higher grade) with a PCGS price guide of $2,850. In contrast, the 1970-S Large Date DDO in PCGS MS64RD has a population of 44/47 and a price guide of $5,750. The same can be said for any of the other traditional keys such as the 1955 DDO, 1914-D, 1922 No D, etc. with relatively large populations while carrying values comparable to major varieties having miniscule populations.

Can anyone please comment on the reasons for this?

[mustbebob]

The demand for varieties is not the same as the demand for high grade coin specimens. Varieties are a relatively small niche, and most of the hard core collectors could care less if their high grade coin has a doubled die or not. It has always been that way and I suspect, it always will be.

[hbarbee]

OK, so value is driven much more by demand than by scarcity. What is interesting is that so few collectors can complete a collection that includes only the major varieties as per PCGS, but when one of them comes to market in exceptional condition it can usually be had for so much less than a traditional key in like condition.

[mustbebob]

You are correct, and history shows exactly what you mention. Scarcity is something else that is not so 'concrete'. For a third party grading service, it is how many of that specific variety they have seen and graded/authenticated...not necessarily how many were struck. There have been quite a few cases over the years where something was considered scarce until someone submitted a bunch of them. Suddenly, the value plummets because there are more of them out there.