What is "FMV"?

[copperlover]

C.W that is the same point that Scott Travers made in his book about how to make money in the coin Market now. He stated that you have to find those coins that are graded too low and have them graded upwards.For this you have to know what price the market will allow. This is what I am currently trying to fathom as I have a long way to go. Which coins will move up in prices or increase in demand over the next few years. Maybe you could suggest some Lincoln CentanVarieties. I guess I'll be looking for some answers. I already have a few.

Lucien

[amosamos16]

lucien, i would have to say as far as the variety coins go the 55 is and always will be top dog. the 17, 36. will be in my view increasing in value due to they are not for the most part in ciculation, and very hard to find in any grade. any major early variety is going to carry a good dollar

[copperlover]

the only thing that I see is that All silver coins prices are flying through the roof. I recently looked at a 1999S close AM cent MS63 for $200.00 but the grade was only MS 63. It may be better if I bought a 2008 w Silver Eagle w 2007 reverse for $400 what would you do. I am looking for appreciation here. The pop for the eagle was only 26,000 if I recall correctly.

Lucien

[liveandievarieties]

kloccwork419- Jason, thanks for your help. My question was more of the rhetorical type (Rhetorical questions encourage the forum member to think about what the (often obvious) answer to the question must be. When a speaker states, "How much longer must our people endure this injustice?", no literal answer is expected. Rather, it is a device used by the speaker to evoke deep discussion). In my own twisted mind, this thread is "fun"- not meant to demand exact answers, but rather draw perspectives from others. There are a million answers, and no "right" or "wrong" ones.
Perhaps a better way to phrase the question would have been: "how does the experienced and ethical die variety enthusiast determine a fair value on a coin that doesn't fit into the constraints of a price guide, while building an honest and strong business?". That was going to be my question initially, but it wouldn't fit in the tiny window. So I had to make the question smaller and simpler, it got too simple, sorry.

Lucien- you sound like you really want to grasp a feel for the market. I'd be happy to email you 1-on-1 with some ideas of where to learn. It's easier than you'd think and intriguing! As for ONE of my secret picks....watch the 2006 CONECA DDO #3. I've been very eager to pick them up for the $200-400 that gem examples go for on eBay. Now here's the crazy part where everyone writes me off as a lunatic- I'm betting stronger than I did on silver 2 years ago (and yes, I'd been stocking up), that this will be a $1,000 21st century die variety within 24 months. If anyone reading this thinks that's impossible, your ear hasn't been pressed against the industry's door long enough. These aren't grand insider secrets- actually out there for everyone to learn if you're so inclined. I hope you continue studying Lucien, I'll never stop.

[jfines69]

This is a very informative and interesting thread... The different opinions on this subject go to the fact that the market is in the eye of the hedger... If done properly the hedger will come out in front... As far as FMV affecting the coins grade I disagree with that approach... To me that appears unfair... However I am no pro and do not know an AU from a MS63 so we can see how that works for me... LOL!!!

[jcuve]

This has been a great thread and hope everyone has been reading the great exchange between Rock and Chris and their insight into this discussion...

BTW, I have a (likely unprovable) hypothesis that certain dealers and collectors buy coins from one another to just keep prices (any prices collectors keep track of) either consistent or inflated.

[liveandievarieties]

There's one simple rule about grade- the finest is always most highly coveted. Period.

Look at an AU58 1955 DDO- 2 years ago, this was a $2,000 coin.
3 days ago, I watched one sell for $1700 in an open, highly visible auction, it got Top "CMV" (current market value- different from FMV).

Now look at the 1992-D Close AM that I helped a friend sell last month. It too was an AU58- but had the distinction of being the "finest graded" brown example by PCGS. The coin fetched $4100 in a March auction by the same company that sold the aforementioned '55 DDO.

What's astounding here is that this 1992-D was purchased 24 months ago, in April of 2009 for $500. At the time, I advised my buddy that this was (IMO) indeed as significant a variety as he held it to be. This was at the beginning of the still-going PCGS Registry coin boom. I shared with him my perspective and encouraged him to make the purchase.

My point ISN'T that I was right, it's that I listened and learned, and had the knowledge to have an informed opinion. Sure, a little luck always helps, but selling this specific coin required more work and research than any other coin I've owned or sold!

If the AU58 1955 DDO appreciated at the same 375% apy in the same 2 years that the 92-D CAM did, it'd be a $15,000 coin today!
No joke, do the math. BUT it didn't- this is why:

Most of the keys to determining "REAL" value (and acheiving top market price) are Top Condition, Scarcity, Demand, TIMING, and Demand. And demand! The 1955 DDO has a known population of over a thousand examples in JUST AU. Not to mention all of the many, many pieces in lower and higher grades. And the counterfeits residing in slabs (but that's a TPG secret that's pretty well burried- don't pick that scab).....ultimately- there is too high of a population of 1955 DDOs for it to be a coin that rises meteorically in value. You'll never double or triple the demand (and price) for it without spending tens of thousands of dollars to promote it, additionally, the coin is too expensive to aggressively market.

But most RARE die varieties can be counted in the low hundreds, and when you have Baseball team owners and CEOs competing for the finest known example, things get heated. I even have a client who purchased a duplicate of a coin in his collection for over $10,000 (not my coin! lol) JUST so that the guy with the registry set below him couldn't beat out his position in the ranking.

These wealthy folks have passion too- whether it's driven by love of collecting or competitiveness, it's what's paying for me to be able to spend 6 hours furiously typing, trying to explain my perspective. It's cool to know that someone else is interested!

[liveandievarieties]

Interesting theory Jason- I'm lucky enough to know and have contact with a lot of EV guys, many of them are also dealers, who I respect for the way they do business, not by manipulating markets to hurt the collector. I know there's guys out there who buy wholesale when given the chance- I'll buy a roll of some varieties if they're hot enough, and have. BUT- I'm a lone wolf- I'm not aware of any "insider dealer-to-dealer secret wholesale market".

YOU BET I MANIPULATE MARKET PRICES! But that's only done by setting realistic reserve prices- WHEN you have the finest examples which are fought for by more than one bidder. NOT by artificially keeping prices high in some nationwide EV dealer network! No smart alec tone intended Jason- I've heard this theory before and want to know more! Several of my friends have Cherrypicker's varieties by the roll, but you add those to ALL the slabbed populations (and the ones in the rolls are all destined for slabbing), you've still got lower overall populations than the 1877 cent or the 1909-SVDB. Surely more will come out of the woodwork in time and POP reports then prices will reflect.

But there will always be yacht owners who MUST have the best of the best. I'll sell my dug-up treasures to them. This allows me to give away my lower valued, less publicized die varieties to people who want to learn. I hold that it helps to have a "real" RPM in front of you to actually understand what characteristics a novice cherrypicker needs to recognize in that variety type. Better than the internet, better than a book. Real, and unquestionable. Once said cherrypicker possesses that understanding, he'll recognize it again and again, the lightbulb will have lit brightly.

Yeah- sometimes I make 10x or 20x my cost of a coin- but I buy on the open eBay market- and sell in another, hotter, more vibrant and refined market. In both markets the coin sells to the highest bidder. This is fair and ethical, and this is everything that market value is about.

[jcuve]

Example A. hypothetical: we have a coin which is a sort of error that is played off like a variety, given a fancy name that sticks and marketed brilliantly. Price stabilizes at $300. Interest wanes a year later with no press coverage; with the threat of prices falling, and a certain number found and never sold (hidden away), two or more dealers buy, a minimum amount of that variety/error from one another to keep the price at or near $300. The trade is continuous, back and forth so no one looses money (if they even send the cash for payment).

Example B. something from my time at Christie's: dealer/gallery represents or has a vested interest (and like a specialty) in a certain artist. Given the typical prices for the artist and the specific work sold, there is a price history: a retail price (largely set by one or more dealers) and a lower auction price (to be expected, it's an auction). In the case of auction, a the dealer would rather buy the work of art for the expected price (even overpaying) rather than see it go for a lower amount (or even if their inventory of the same work is high) as it impacts the databases of art sold.

Example C. hypothetical: a collector overpays for a rare error or variety that was the product of a bidding war between two people. Collector overpays and should have waited for another to appear, but didn't. collector decides to protect the initial investment by buying any addition examples of that particular variety that comes up for sale/trade, even to the degree of repeatedly overpaying to keep the price in a certain ballpark...

[liveandievarieties]

In regard to example A- I'm certainly not disagreeing with the idea that insider trading happens in many different markets. I just haven't caught wind of it in the E/V world yet. Our field is still a very young one. 10 years ago, there wasn't a "DV market". Just collectors who bought the coins they couldn't cherrypick, people who loved, not coveted coins.

Example B and C are very realistic, I've been witness to both.

[hasfam]

Interesting dialogue Chris and Jason. Just a couple of comments if I may,

Chris, Your example of how the market demand differs between the 1955 DDO and the 1992 CAM is classic 101 education. I have found that many or most dealers know and understand this concept, but the difference between success and nonsuccess is the discipline to hold up or to move forward even when everything and everyone around you screams otherwise. In my opinion, when the market is sceaming for a special item then its already over. I missed the boat.

Jason, dealer to dealer sales happen all the time, in many markets and for a lot of different reasons. Dealers would like to have an edge on their competition but, most realize there might be times when they might have to depend on another dealer to complete a sale for a client. This is where a minimal amount of ethics that come to play side by side along with the competition.

Chris, Yes there will always be someone who wants the best of the best and there are those who will pay handsomely to be the first.

20+ years ago there was a wealthy man you coveted a particular vintage baseball card. There were only 6 known and he already owned 2. He was at a convention where I had a table in Los Angeles. One of the 6 cards was for sale at this convention and he bought it....and literally tore it up on the bourse saying, "now the 2 I own are worth more". This had an impact on my thoughts regarding what some people will do to manipulate values.

Chris, your right about not having a E/V market 10+ years ago other than the monthy CONECA auctions or from your local coin dealers. That is until the State Quarters hit the market/ebay in 1999, especially any one of them with even the slightest anomoly. It opened up the doors to a whole new world of E/V collectors.

[copperlover]

CW this thread is real. I confirm that you have to do a lot of research and I would be willing to have a talk about Lincoln varieties. In the meantime I will continue studying. You can PM me.

Lucien

[liveandievarieties]

If you want to chat sometime this week Lucien, email me at cwelchuscoins@yahoo.com (dunno if putting my email on the forum is a no-no, it's the only email I use. Let me know your schedule and I'd love to share a few things with you! -Chris.

[kloccwork419]

Its not a no-no Chris. Your not "over there"..lolol

Now lets all start spamming him!!!!!..lolol

[liveandievarieties]

Was that you that sent the embarrassing photos Jason? I think you're the only one who spammed me! lol