Varieties and values

[mustbebob]

Are you kidding me Sean? This hasn't been discussed here a million times before? This post seems to be a result of the 1968 RPM fiasco.

I will refuse to get involved in this conversation again, especially with the same people it has been discussed with before.

How about I put this on the home page:

DO NOT USE THE PRICING ON COPPERCOINS FOR ANY REASON. IT IS INACCURATE AND STARTS FIGHTS AND DISAGREEMENTS. IT IS ONLY THERE TO TAKE UP EXCESS SPACE BECAUSE THE ATTRIBUTER HAS NOTHING BUT TIME ON HIS HANDS AND LIKES ADDING RANDOM NUMBERS TO LISTINGS.

This is crazy folks. QUITE FRANKLY, I AM TIRED OF REPEATING MYSELF.

Tell you what. If you are so concerned about the pricing anywhere, take the time to write and publish your own book, and list the appropriate, up to date prices on each of the 5,000 + known varieties. Keep it updated and accurate at ALL times. Do not use a caveat either. Tell folks that they must abide by your prices, and that there can not be any disparity.

It is stuff like this that will eventually get me to leave this forum. Have your conversation, but leave me out of it.

[coppercoins]

I figure I should chime in here since coppercoins.com is actually MY website, and the pricing on that site is MY doing. It is not automated, and it does not update itself. I have it on my list of stuff to do to eventually incorporate some algorithms that will update the price guide and keep it updated. At such point that part actually works, I will have to charge admission to the site. Even in a perfect world it will take 20-30 hours of maintenance per quarter to keep the guide updated. You do realize that when you have 20 different values (each grade) for nearly 3,000 die varieties, then 20 different values for all the regular issues, then you multiply each one of those by three (for brown, red-brown, and red values) you end up with a database containing nearly 250,000 different values to keep updated...I'm not doing that for free.

At any rate, while the values for some of the more popular die varieties are inaccurate - and for good reason - the values for two-thirds of all the varieties listed on the site are more or less accurate and provide an idea of what the coins listed are worth. It was MEANT to be a general guide - NOT a rule.

Basically, THIS is the BOTTOM LINE:

coppercoins.com is mine. It is now and always has been. I own it, I pay for it. Bob has done a tremendous job keeping it updated and working as the PR guy for the site. With that said, I have COMPLETE control over whether the site stays up and active or not.

A price guide ANYWHERE is a liability. It has to be maintained, and I have not kept the guide on coppercoins.com updated. The whole thing needs to be rebuilt.

So...I CAN just shut the entire site down until I get a working price guide on it...OR...

You people can quit bitching about it and I'll leave the site active so you can use the parts that DO work.

Your choice.

Stop the complaining about my six year old guide prices and I'll LET you use MY website. How's that sound???

[ray_parkhurst]

Hmmm, being a relatively new member here I guess I missed the earlier threads where complaints about price guidelines were discussed and apparently in a heated manner! Had I known I may not have jumped in, but since I did I'd like to say that I do indeed use CC as a reference for pricing, but only to get a rough first estimate so I don't do anything stupid either direction. As I stated earlier, pricing is determined by several factors (grade, rarity, desirability) and is INFLUENCED by things like auction results, price guides, precious metals prices, how robust the economy is, etc. Price guides simply can't keep up with all these factors, and being knowledgeable about how the factors affect true value is what gives us specialists the edge when considering a particular offering.

[WaterSport]

Well, think we digressed a bit about "values". I was reading this thread and I thought it was not criticizing listed guides but more about how one determines a value and I think that is a legitimate question.

First of all, how many here collected varieties back when a coin with a variety was actually valued less than a non attributed coin? I remember getting most of my 1972 DDO in old ANACS holders and never paying more than $20 (with exception to Die 1 and 4 of course) Most of the raw stuff sold under $20. What happened? well, lets start with things like THIS web site and publications that popularized variety collection. Then kick in PCGS and NGC doing variety attribution for registry sets. Did these raise values?? and lets not forget all you wonderful collectors with your noses to the hand lens discovering a whole bunch of new varieties. The Elements that affect the market are on going. But no one can determine a value unless the coin is for sale. And then once its sold, that "value" is
fluid. What you are seeing on older examples going fairly high is condition rarity. You are going to pay $250 or more for a MS 1910 S cent. Now add a S/S and yes, its going to be well over $500. You also must consider lower mintage compared to say a 1970 S/S cent. and one of the biggest factors is how common is it? I think most will agree the 1910 S RPM 1 is a lot scarcer than RPM 2 and both are much more scarce than our 1970 S. So whats the 1970 S/S worth???, I would have a hard time giving you $5 for an MS example. Now put that 1970 S in an attributed MS 66 PCGS holder and I would gladly give you $200. What ? Well, yes, I play the registry game. I know you got at least $75 in that coin just to get attributed and maybe its the only one that has been graded that high in the population report. And maybe I know that one of my friendly collector competitors has unlimited resources and would gladly pay me $1000 just to have a top pop coin. My point being all of these scenarios make it IMPOSSIBLE to judge the value of a variety. If the coin is important to you and your collecting then who cares what it is worth. But if your selling, the market will dictate the value. Pre determining values will lead to many disappointments and unexpected higher bids will lead to joy, buy ask someone like Chris who does this sort of stuff for a living and he will tell you he scratches his head at the end of each auction as the "values" often make no sense to him. And while your at it dont' forget to add greed, shill bidding, manipulation, vengeance, and tinkle contest in to your value formulas.

WS

[seal006]

I am all out of "Thanks", but thank you Ray. This is exactly what I am trying to get across. I in no way feel that pricing anywhere will be 100% accurate. I do realize price change everyday. I just feel that there needs to be a place for people like yourself and me to go and at least get a ballpark idea. A place where we can take that info and combine it with what we see at shows, on eBay, Teletrade, Heritage, and the like to come up with what we feel is the current market value. I am not trying to argue with anyone here. I just want people that seem to be very experienced in pricing all these items we all search for to come and explain how they are able to do it. LCR is a great place for experts. We rely on people like Bob and Chuck to help us determine what we have is. So now let us here from the coin value experts as to how they are able to come up with a coins value.

[seal006]

Well, think we digressed a bit about "values". I was reading this thread and I thought it was not criticizing listed guides but more about how one determines a value and I think that is a legitimate question.


WS

Bingo, that is what this thread is for.

[Scott99]

I like the discussion here! I don't have anything to add as I usually let the buyer decide the value of the coins I sell. I'm not sure how there can be a set price guide for any variety but rather just a rough estimate of what it "might" be worth. My only thought is that if someone was very concerned about the inaccurate pricing on any website, they should probably make their own website offering a price guide to their satisfaction. It would be a lot of work but then you'd understand why some of the prices on existing price guides can be so inaccurate.

[seal006]

Matt, I agree with what you have posted. When you say you let the buyer decide the value, does that mean there is not an amount you will not take. I would feel you would be determining value in your own mind by having a minimum price that you would take. So where did that value come from?

I agree it would be a daunting task to have and maintain a guide that was a real pulse of current markets. I just feel that with regular coins and varieties the prices would not drastically change all that fast. Yes, at the beginning of a newly discovered variety I can see where pricing would be all over the place, but after a cooling off period of a few years, one would think the prices would level off. That is what info I am after, how someone determines the value once it has leveled off.

[coppercoins]

Incorporating a price guide into coppercoins.com that stays relatively accurate and takes into account real sales is in the future plans for the site, but is not something that will be finished within this year. There are a lot of pieces of data to collect first, then the algorithm has to be written. I already have the behavior for the price guide in my head, it's just a matter of getting it out in code.

And yes, it is proprietary. I will not share how I plan to do it. Trust me when I say that I have been buying and selling die varieties for over 20 years now and I have a pretty good handle on how they should be priced and how to write a program that keeps it updated.

More to come later on how anyone here can help and receive their discount off the paid membership price of coppercoins.com once this feature is complete. This is certainly one feature that will push me over the threshold of charging admission to the site. Keeping 250,000 values up to date is certainly something that will take quite an investment of time, and that's something that comes at a premium with me.

I need to discuss my plan with Bob, then I need to draw up the plan, then I need to code it, and THEN - I will be ready to come up with a template that anyone can use to record actual coin sales that will individually reduce their membership fee once they register. Basically, you help build it, you get it cheaper. You help enough, and it's free to you.

With that being said, I'm going to drop off into the darkness again and watch from the corner.

Just know that I am aware that the pricing on coppercoins.com is woefully inaccurate. Also know that I have a plan for solving that already. It's just a matter of finding the time to make the plan turn into reality. No further information is available at this time, and I will personally keep you updated as this project unfolds.

Also - if you think you're going to head me off at the pass and start collecting a bunch of information for when this does turn into reality - save yourself the effort. I am not ready yet to announce what I want and how I want it, and anything you're going to do to try and guess your way around me is going to be incorrect, and probably not useable.

[Justafarmer]

John Wexler's site contains links to many establsihed retailers (Himself, Ribar, Flynn, Potter, etc) of variety coins. Chuck has closed his online store so that information is no longer available. Logic for me is I'll pay more money for a coin graded and attributed by one of these guys as opposed to some schmuck on Ebay.

[seal006]

Incorporating a price guide into coppercoins.com that stays relatively accurate and takes into account real sales is in the future plans for the site, but is not something that will be finished within this year. There are a lot of pieces of data to collect first, then the algorithm has to be written. I already have the behavior for the price guide in my head, it's just a matter of getting it out in code.

And yes, it is proprietary. I will not share how I plan to do it. Trust me when I say that I have been buying and selling die varieties for over 20 years now and I have a pretty good handle on how they should be priced and how to write a program that keeps it updated.

More to come later on how anyone here can help and receive their discount off the paid membership price of coppercoins.com once this feature is complete. This is certainly one feature that will push me over the threshold of charging admission to the site. Keeping 250,000 values up to date is certainly something that will take quite an investment of time, and that's something that comes at a premium with me.

I need to discuss my plan with Bob, then I need to draw up the plan, then I need to code it, and THEN - I will be ready to come up with a template that anyone can use to record actual coin sales that will individually reduce their membership fee once they register. Basically, you help build it, you get it cheaper. You help enough, and it's free to you.

With that being said, I'm going to drop off into the darkness again and watch from the corner.

Just know that I am aware that the pricing on coppercoins.com is woefully inaccurate. Also know that I have a plan for solving that already. It's just a matter of finding the time to make the plan turn into reality. No further information is available at this time, and I will personally keep you updated as this project unfolds.

Also - if you think you're going to head me off at the pass and start collecting a bunch of information for when this does turn into reality - save yourself the effort. I am not ready yet to announce what I want and how I want it, and anything you're going to do to try and guess your way around me is going to be incorrect, and probably not useable.

Thanks Chuck. I can only imagine how crazy of a task that would be. I appreciate your input on this thread.

[liveandievarieties]

Geez.

We did deep six-figures in sales last year. Do you want to know how? We sold coins at just under what others were pay for them! You offer something someone wants, then drop the price to below what they value it at, and BOOM! People buy. Very, very few but the novices "look up" prices. This is a live game in real-time. There is no such thing as an accurate PUBLISHED price guide, it doesn't exist and never will- as soon as it's updated, it's outdated. Period.

My way of valuing coins? It's a little formula in my head where I calculate the "Wow" factor times the scarcity times the grade times the desire of the buyer times my upcoming bills..... POW! An instant evaluation system.

It's really not difficult derriving value of a piece- it took me about 6 months of selling on my own, looking at other sales and guaging what's hot by talking to others- that's it. Just a matter of paying attention and remembering.

Have I sold coins that were resold shortly after for more money? Hell yes. Have I sold coins for less than I thought I could eventually get for them? All the time. Have I sold a coin that I seriously underscored it's rarity and value? A few times. If you're too afraid that this will happen to you, keep your day job, create a spreadsheet. Argue for hours with others to no benefit whatsoever. I'd rather sell coins, we need a new riding mower, an iron gate for our driveway and an RV. Gonna go make that happen now.

Kudos to they men of Coppercoins for having their intestinal fortitude! It's the single best reference out there, but prices don't have much to do with the site's value (remember that for the next discussion in a couple of months!)

[coppercoins]

The short - short answer is this:

It is possible to keep an accurate price guide of Lincoln cent die varieties. This is exactly what I plan to do, and my method should work fine. It will at least be a lot more accurate than any other method currently employed by any other source - considering the scope of the project.

[seal006]

Chris, you have completely missed the point. There are people coming to this niche in the hobby every single day. They want to know what they are collecting has value, and is not just cool looking. LCR is a great place for learning, so why not learn about valuating coins as well. It is just like when opinions are made about the grade of a coin. People offer up, and some explain why they came to that conclusion. Grading is very subjective as well, but there is some core structure as to how one can arrive at a good determination as to what grade a coin is. I am looking for that kind of reasoning.

[coppercoins]

Willbrooks - Hate to burst the bubble on that idea, but the thought of rewriting coppercoins.com and including a price guide has been on my mind for over 5 years. There will be other value added features that currently do not exist on the internet as we know it that will assist collectors in making the decision to pay to use the site.

My decision to charge for use of the site has nothing at all to do with the recent complaints over the out of date price guide. It has everything to do with making the site a fully interactive 'experience' in collecting Lincoln cent die varieties that will be the benchmark of the future of coin collecting that will be something worth more than twice the nominal fee I will charge for its use.

Now it's all in the matter of properly planning it, figuring out whether I have the time to do it, and getting it done...on my own time, on my own schedule.

Until then - enjoy what you do have - for free!