What are the chances of finding a doubled die in boxes of new cents?

[VAB2013]

So, you guys already know I have three boxes of 2019P's to search. I'm trying to figure out what the odds are that there might be a doubled die in these rolls. When you guys have searched solid new boxes and found doubled dies (sometimes a full roll of them) how often did that happen?

It seems to me that die pairs would get all mixed up together. After the cents are ejected from the Schuler press do they go into a tote and then dumped in that huge bag? I always wondered how they get into the huge bag. So... then I saw on a video that the huge bag goes to the Federal Reserve Banks (but why go there? they don't roll them up... makes more sense for that huge bag to go straight to the rolling company).

[Petespockets55]

The percentages go up of finding multiples when you find a variety in an original roll. When I do find one in a roll, I zero in on any obvious markers to make the search easier.
But the percentages of finding one in a roll depends on how many out of the 3,000-5,000 die pairs produced had the doubling.

I would think the number of varieties for any given year might be helped by older, looser fitting working hub dies as the equipment ages.

[VAB2013]

Thank you Cliff! Yeah... I used to look for markers back when I was searching full boxes of Shields and finding trail dies because it was easier to spot a marker than the trail lines. But, after that I stopped looking for markers on new Shield cents because it is faster to just look at the devices that might have doubling (especially the date, RTY and LB/JFM) than to try to find the same markers.

My gut feeling is that the process that the cents go through after leaving the press and going into that huge bag and then however they get out of that huge bag and into rolls - is that groups of same die pairs get all mixed up.

[Petespockets55]

They do get mixed up but in the same original roll when I have found one, I have found more.

Try an experiment to see how many die pairs you have in one of the rolls you're searching now. There are bound to be multiple die pairs in a roll. Find a prominent marker on each die pair and go to town. If you do it, I'm going to guess 7-9 die pair in a roll and if you compare rolls you will probably see some of those die pair again along with others.

It might just minimize how tedious it is searching those 2019's.

[jfines69]

Since CC has 7 listed DDOs for the 2019P your chances are already up... VV and Wexler do not have any DDOs yet... To bad we can't find RPMs on these

[Roller]

If you have found DDs in circulation in your area (and the bricks are from there) the chances are more likely that you may find them in the solid date boxes. No guarantees though.

[GrumpyEd]

It depends on the year and how many different ones and the number minted of each against the total of normal ones.

Assuming you mean modern solid bricks.

I'd say the odds are really bad to find anything big, the odds of finding some modern minor ones is pretty good.

It's going to be feast or famine, you might find nothing at all or you might find hundreds of one or more.
For some reason with some dates several good varieties come out near the same time.

2006 was the best I know for that, there were a few months where they made lots of them so if you got the right dated brick you might get lots of several of them. The 2009 fingers were similar, if you followed the posts (like on CU) people knew down to a few days which variety might be in the rolls. (mint dated rolls you could order in 2009).
I had OBW 1983 rolls with 3 of the best DDOs in the same rolls.

Most rolls have anything from a few die pairs up to maybe less than 20.

Stuff gets mixed so you might find stragglers,

Some "in the know" variety hunters say they sample stuff. The reasoning is, a single goodie won't do much for them, they want groups of rolls with something (like a gold miner sampling a stream) so if they look at a few solid rolls from a box/bag they stop if nothing was found and sell the rest sealed. If they find a good variety or a bunch of them, they search them all.

If you ever find a truly hot box of moderns with a decent variety and see a few on end coins, that box will probably have hundreds more.

[VAB2013]

They do get mixed up but in the same original roll when I have found one, I have found more.

Try an experiment to see how many die pairs you have in one of the rolls you're searching now. There are bound to be multiple die pairs in a roll. Find a prominent marker on each die pair and go to town. If you do it, I'm going to guess 7-9 die pair in a roll and if you compare rolls you will probably see some of those die pair again along with others.

It might just minimize how tedious it is searching those 2019's.

Yes Sir, I have already done that before on solid date Shield bricks. I was curious... and there were several different die pairs in each roll, and some rolls had more of the same die pair. I can already tell that these rolls have some of the same die pairs and I'm not really trying to figure it out (same die chip on the Y and gouge between the RT). I'm doing a speed search to get through these faster - I can get 36 cents under the scope at once so I'm just looking at the date and Liberty.

Earlier I called my banker friend and she said that she was just fixing to call me. A lady came in with $600 of rolled coins (saved for vacation money) and a bunch of them are pennies! So I will be getting those tomorrow! Yay! finally something to look at besides just 2019P's!

[VAB2013]

Since CC has 7 listed DDOs for the 2019P your chances are already up... VV and Wexler do not have any DDOs yet... To bad we can't find RPMs on these

Thank you Jim! You know... I'm kind of surprised that Chuck listed some of those 2019P minors. Maybe it's just a sign that I am starting to grow up (or get old) and minors don't excite me as much anymore. I can honestly say that I am now able to see a minor and know it's unlisted and keep on searching

[VAB2013]

If you have found DDs in circulation in your area (and the bricks are from there) the chances are more likely that you may find them in the solid date boxes. No guarantees though.

Thank you Roller! Yeah.. you know you and I have found one 2019P that was kinda on the minor side but probably listable compared to the other listings. And then I found 2 more that are minor, but they looked pretty good actually so questionable as far as listing. If I found more of those that would be pretty cool... but I'm hoping to find a better example! My question would have been better asked if I said "what are the chances of finding a "nice" DD in these three boxes of solid 2019P's when so far I'm not seeing anything LOL!

[VAB2013]

It depends on the year and how many different ones and the number minted of each against the total of normal ones.

Assuming you mean modern solid bricks.

I'd say the odds are really bad to find anything big, the odds of finding some modern minor ones is pretty good.

It's going to be feast or famine, you might find nothing at all or you might find hundreds of one or more.
For some reason with some dates several good varieties come out near the same time.

2006 was the best I know for that, there were a few months where they made lots of them so if you got the right dated brick you might get lots of several of them. The 2009 fingers were similar, if you followed the posts (like on CU) people knew down to a few days which variety might be in the rolls. (mint dated rolls you could order in 2009).
I had OBW 1983 rolls with 3 of the best DDOs in the same rolls.

Most rolls have anything from a few die pairs up to maybe less than 20.

Stuff gets mixed so you might find stragglers,

Some "in the know" variety hunters say they sample stuff. The reasoning is, a single goodie won't do much for them, they want groups of rolls with something (like a gold miner sampling a stream) so if they look at a few solid rolls from a box/bag they stop if nothing was found and sell the rest sealed. If they find a good variety or a bunch of them, they search them all.

If you ever find a truly hot box of moderns with a decent variety and see a few on end coins, that box will probably have hundreds more.

Oh Ed, I was afraid you would say something like that "feast or famine" LOL! I just remember you talking about scoring those nice 2006 DD's, rolls of them! So... maybe if I find "ONE" nice one... the chance is pretty good that I would find more than just one of them? I would be happy with that after going through three boxes of these - but not happy about the famine part LOL!

[makecents]

I can honestly say that I am now able to see a minor and know it's unlisted and keep on searching

Oh yeah!!!!

[VAB2013]

Oh yeah!!!!

LOL... thank you Jon! It only took me 6 years to get to that point! If it's a new year and nothing has been found yet, I still get a little excited about a minor - but not as bad as I used to be! I'm sure that BJ had a good laugh at me a few times - when I was finding trail dies in new year boxes of Shields, a couple of times I sent him a minor to see if it was "a minor" and it was VERY minor LOL! I can laugh about it now - but it all part of the learning curve - my curve just went all over the place

[GrumpyEd]

Oh Ed, I was afraid you would say something like that "feast or famine" LOL! I just remember you talking about scoring those nice 2006 DD's, rolls of them! So... maybe if I find "ONE" nice one... the chance is pretty good that I would find more than just one of them? I would be happy with that after going through three boxes of these - but not happy about the famine part LOL!

It means like you said "(same die chip on the Y and gouge between the RT)" if that was a variety you would have rolls of them. (feast) but it wasn't so you got (famine).

Your batch from the bank will be more fun, better mix. This is also why sometimes it's so fun to search a wheat bag, they always have some good stuff.

[WaterSport]

Great question. Having watched the minting process I can tell you the cents are filling a rolling cart a bit smaller than those you see for laundry like at hotel or other instituition. Therefore, (in my mind) the only way more than one DDO would show is if during the filling of that big cart - a die change takes place. Now I can not say what happens to those carts once filled. So to me it would be feast or famine as Ed stated. Now once they get to the Federal Reserve Bank in bins/bags or what other transportation method is used before they get rolled would seem where the mixing of different press runs would occur. Likewise again, at a bank when coins are mixed once again for rolling. So my assumption is your darn lucky to find a DDO to begin with regardless.

WS