How much is my coin worth?

[seal006]

Not nearly enough data available for those. The point of my system is not to come up with values for highly common varieties. Why would you want that anyway? You could assign a value of whatever the raw regular issue coin sells for in the grade your coin is in and add a bit for the variety. Say your 1958-D RPM #13 MS65 sells for $4 or $5 then you could say your variety would be $7 to $10 or so.

[ray_parkhurst]

Not nearly enough data available for those. The point of my system is not to come up with values for highly common varieties. Why would you want that anyway? You could assign a value of whatever the raw regular issue coin sells for in the grade your coin is in and add a bit for the variety. Say your 1958-D RPM #13 MS65 sells for $4 or $5 then you could say your variety would be $7 to $10 or so.

After reading this, I think I will give this thread a rest for a while.

[willbrooks]

[simonm]

Nothing to do here.

[seal006]

After reading this, I think I will give this thread a rest for a while.

I see where I miss type. I was referring to $3 to $4 for the regular issue. The $7 to $10 for the variety. I had been up way too many hours when I typed that.

[cimperialis]

10 years from now, not accounting for inflation, what is the coin going to be worth? There were likely hundreds of thousands if not millions of them made, though I don't have any data on this particular coin to state that definitively, so many more will probably be found by then and this will lower their value.

This is one thing in the thread that I really disagree with. Under this presumption, all varieties should, over time, become less and less valuable. This is true for many varieties, but there are many that increase in value too.

Indeed, more examples of all varieties are continuously found, but more collectors are joining the hobby too, and wanting their own example. This should in part counteract the fact that more examples of varieties are found.

[seal006]

This is one thing in the thread that I really disagree with. Under this presumption, all varieties should, over time, become less and less valuable. This is true for many varieties, but there are many that increase in value too.

Indeed, more examples of all varieties are continuously found, but more collectors are joining the hobby too, and wanting their own example. This should in part counteract the fact that more examples of varieties are found.

That is an excellent point Sean. You might also consider attrition as well. Many of the modern varieties 1982-present that are made of zinc will not have the ability to hold their own in the wild. Zinc rot will decrease not only the number of a particular variety, but also the sheer number of regular non variety examples of the coin as well.

Ray I was not trying to dampen your spirits on what you want to achieve. I just feel you have added way to many variables to consider, and I am not sure where you could get the info for some of those variables. If you concentrated your efforts on CPG varieties first you would have a lot more data to analyze that would be easier to obtain. You could then take your results and pare it down to say the smaller, lesser known, less expensive varieties like the obscure RPMs, doubled columns, doubled kneees, and so on.

[ray_parkhurst]

This is one thing in the thread that I really disagree with. Under this presumption, all varieties should, over time, become less and less valuable. This is true for many varieties, but there are many that increase in value too.

Indeed, more examples of all varieties are continuously found, but more collectors are joining the hobby too, and wanting their own example. This should in part counteract the fact that more examples of varieties are found.

Unfortunately, I did not go back to edit all my posts after I modified my terminology. At the time I wrote what you are objecting to, my term "value" was what I am now calling "core value", which is based on factors related to the coin itself. Indeed as more and more coins of a given variety are found, the core value of that variety will drop, assuming all else is equal. But what you are saying is also true, that some coins will drop in what I initially called "price" but am now calling "market value", while some will rise. This is due to the various market factors that may affect different coins differently.

[ray_parkhurst]

Ray I was not trying to dampen your spirits on what you want to achieve. I just feel you have added way to many variables to consider, and I am not sure where you could get the info for some of those variables. If you concentrated your efforts on CPG varieties first you would have a lot more data to analyze that would be easier to obtain. You could then take your results and pare it down to say the smaller, lesser known, less expensive varieties like the obscure RPMs, doubled columns, doubled kneees, and so on.

My spirits are fine, no worries! What I object to is your lack of respect for anything but the strongest and most popular varieties that are in the CPG, PCGS, etc price listings. Pricing on those is almost completely determined by market factors, since their core value is just a small fraction of what people are paying for them. There are plenty of folks already keenly focused on pricing those famous varieties. I'm interested in figuring out how much the other 99% are worth as well.

[seal006]

I truly have a lot of respect for every variety. I collect RPMs. Very few of them get enough notoriety to get into the pages of the CPG. I am also a realist. I understand that there is much more data on the "big boys", and that info, if dissected properly could open up a world of knowledge of our lesser collectibles. You are wanting the true value of every coin, the value of many coins is zero, because no one bothers to collect them. If you feel you can get factual data in the amount to quantify any theories you may have, then go for it. I will be one of the first to applaud your efforts.

[ray_parkhurst]

I truly have a lot of respect for every variety. I collect RPMs. Very few of them get enough notoriety to get into the pages of the CPG. I am also a realist. I understand that there is much more data on the "big boys", and that info, if dissected properly could open up a world of knowledge of our lesser collectibles. You are wanting the true value of every coin, the value of many coins is zero, because no one bothers to collect them. If you feel you can get factual data in the amount to quantify any theories you may have, then go for it. I will be one of the first to applaud your efforts.

It didn't sound that way when you said "The point of my system is not to come up with values for highly common varieties. Why would you want that anyway?". That sounds like a lot of disrespect to me.

I'm also not sure what sort of knowledge you are trying to glean from "dissecting" very volatile auction results. What I think you will find is that the buyer doesn't know anything at all about the coin, other than it's something they need to fill a hole in the particular registry set they are in competition for.

[seal006]

What I think you will find is that the buyer doesn't know anything at all about the coin, other than it's something they need to fill a hole in the particular registry set they are in competition for.

This is 100% true. I think what you are going to find while figuring your system out is that in the end, that uneducated purchaser is unfortunately ultimate responsible for even the base value of the coin. In economics you learn that the consumer is the driving force behind anything. Take gold, for example, the spot value is just above $1600 right now. What makes it $1600? People. People are willing to pay $1600 in an open market for it.

[ray_parkhurst]

This is 100% true. I think what you are going to find while figuring your system out is that in the end, that uneducated purchaser is unfortunately ultimate responsible for even the base value of the coin. In economics you learn that the consumer is the driving force behind anything. Take gold, for example, the spot value is just above $1600 right now. What makes it $1600? People. People are willing to pay $1600 in an open market for it.

Well, then all this discussion has been futile. Since those uneducated purchasers are only interested in the most famous 1% of varieties, and would not buy the others, we can simply set the value for the other 99% to zero and spend them at their 1c base value. I want to thank you for this lesson in economics and your support of figuring out a better system to value varieties, but ultimately it seems nothing better can be done since we specialist collectors have no input whatsoever into the process.

[seal006]

Well, then all this discussion has been futile. Since those uneducated purchasers are only interested in the most famous 1% of varieties, and would not buy the others, we can simply set the value for the other 99% to zero and spend them at their 1c base value. I want to thank you for this lesson in economics and your support of figuring out a better system to value varieties, but ultimately it seems nothing better can be done since we specialist collectors have no input whatsoever into the process.

Ray,

I am not saying that at all. I am saying to get the easiest, most abundant data available. Build your formula using that data. From that you should be able to tell what a 1972 DDO #4 in XF raw is worth. That is important data. Especially for those of us that enjoy roll hunting for varieties. You can also use that data to formulate what a 1958 RPM #39 is worth in raw state, even though you will not be able to find data directly attributed to that variety. We all do indeed have input. We have input by what we buy and what we try to sell. There are just so few of us that I feel we make such a small ripple on a huge pond when we do.

[ray_parkhurst]

Ray,

I am not saying that at all. I am saying to get the easiest, most abundant data available. Build your formula using that data. From that you should be able to tell what a 1972 DDO #4 in XF raw is worth. That is important data. Especially for those of us that enjoy roll hunting for varieties. You can also use that data to formulate what a 1958 RPM #39 is worth in raw state, even though you will not be able to find data directly attributed to that variety. We all do indeed have input. We have input by what we buy and what we try to sell. There are just so few of us that I feel we make such a small ripple on a huge pond when we do.

I'd like to hear your proposal of how to take data from the "famous" varieties to come up with data for the common ones. I've described how I would do it from the bottom up using fundamental factors, but I don't see how it would be done the other way. Please explain. Also, please explain why your top down method is better, ie why the auction price of a 1955 DDO or a 1956-D RPM #8 has any relationship to a 1958-D RPM#39 and can be used to accurately predict its value.