How much is my coin worth?

[liveandievarieties]

Hey guys- I'll save you hours more of typing. Just shoot me a PM and I'll tell you what a coin can be expected to sell for. I don't use a formula, just simple supply and demand along with price histories of each coin.

There is no way to predict the outcome of an auction. Nobody has ever been able to in any respect.

You can set a fixed price and calculate the probability of a coin selling or not. But there is no way to predict the intentions of unknown others.

For the minor RPMs- even if there was only 25 ever minted, that's probably more than the amount of collectors NEEDING that coin for a collection. It's still a $5 coin.

[seal006]

Because you can take away those market influences like being in the CPG. You can factor in how much weight is added to those top variety because of their boldness. With you method, you were going to be adding that stuff in, so why could you not take it away? If a 1956-D RPM #1 is near the top of desirable RPMs, which in turn make it one of the pricer RPMs in high grade with a slab, how much of that is added in to the final value? How much influence does being in the CPG have? How much being on the CONECA Top 100? How much for being part of a registry set? Once you can establish those things you could start peeling those back to uncover what a "no name", non popular RPM is worth.

[ray_parkhurst]

......For the minor RPMs- even if there was only 25 ever minted, that's probably more than the amount of collectors NEEDING that coin for a collection. It's still a $5 coin.

This is why I don't think it's possible to do the top-down approach. Those minor RPMs are not all worth $5, but are worth varying amounts based on their fundamentals, and those fundamentals have nothing to do with the Price of Tea in China. Yet the selling price of a 55DDO is just about as far removed from the fundamentals driving the value of the minor RPMs as POTIC, and IMHO just as useless in assessing their value.

[liveandievarieties]

So what values are you using to account for market fluctuation?

Here's an example: 2 years ago I was getting $300-500 for 1969-D No FGs, FS-901. Now I sell one about every 6 months, fixed price for under $100.

Another: The 1955-D DDO #1, FS-101. A year ago I was picking up BU examples on eBay for $10-20. I just sold a slabbed AU for $60 at auction.

Another: 1972-P DDO #3 in PCGS AU50-55. I sold one 2 months ago for $90 in an auction. Sold another 2 weeks later for $21. Buyer didn't pay, so I relisted it at auction and it sold for $112. All the while, I had another example on one of our other eBay sites listed in the same grade for $43.

How does anyone plan to predict value?

[ray_parkhurst]

Because you can take away those market influences like being in the CPG. You can factor in how much weight is added to those top variety because of their boldness. With you method, you were going to be adding that stuff in, so why could you not take it away? If a 1956-D RPM #1 is near the top of desirable RPMs, which in turn make it one of the pricer RPMs in high grade with a slab, how much of that is added in to the final value? How much influence does being in the CPG have? How much being on the CONECA Top 100? How much for being part of a registry set? Once you can establish those things you could start peeling those back to uncover what a "no name", non popular RPM is worth.

How about one step further...why not establish the core value of non-variety coins as well by simply removing the value added by the variety completely. In your previous post, you seemed to think it was a pretty fixed amount that is added. I wonder how accurate a price guide you could come up with for all Lincoln Cents based on the auction prices of 1955DDOs?

[ray_parkhurst]

So what values are you using to account for market fluctuation?

Here's an example: 2 years ago I was getting $300-500 for 1969-D No FGs, FS-901. Now I sell one about every 6 months, fixed price for under $100.

Another: The 1955-D DDO #1, FS-101. A year ago I was picking up BU examples on eBay for $10-20. I just sold a slabbed AU for $60 at auction.

Another: 1972-P DDO #3 in PCGS AU50-55. I sold one 2 months ago for $90 in an auction. Sold another 2 weeks later for $21. Buyer didn't pay, so I relisted it at auction and it sold for $112. All the while, I had another example on one of our other eBay sites listed in the same grade for $43.

How does anyone plan to predict value?

I'd propose to use auction prices realized as factors influencing the MV of those varieties where data exists.

[seal006]

My main objective in the thread I started was to get a ballpark figure of what a variety is worth. True, I am mainly interested in the ones that I know I can sell. I have a whole lot of the ones I cannot sell, and haven't sold, so to me really hold no value. My other objective was to try and formulate how much a slab played into the final value of sold varieties. I do not deal with slabs. I like to buy and sell raw coins, just like the ones I find searching rolls and bags. I wanted to see if I could come up with a way to get a general idea of what my 1955-D DDO #1 in XF condition that I just pulled from the bag I was searching by getting a general idea of what slabbed MS65 examples of the same variety sell for. That is the main thing I am wanting to learn.

[coppercoins]

seal006 - Contact me regarding, "I have a whole lot of the ones I cannot sell, and haven't sold, so to me really hold no value."

I would like to know what it is that you have a lot of that has no value.

Don't post in the forum, just send an email. cd@coppercoins.com

[ray_parkhurst]

My main objective in the thread I started was to get a ballpark figure of what a variety is worth. True, I am mainly interested in the ones that I know I can sell. I have a whole lot of the ones I cannot sell, and haven't sold, so to me really hold no value. My other objective was to try and formulate how much a slab played into the final value of sold varieties. I do not deal with slabs. I like to buy and sell raw coins, just like the ones I find searching rolls and bags. I wanted to see if I could come up with a way to get a general idea of what my 1955-D DDO #1 in XF condition that I just pulled from the bag I was searching by getting a general idea of what slabbed MS65 examples of the same variety sell for. That is the main thing I am wanting to learn.

From that perspective, it really doesn't matter if we take the top-down or bottoms-up approach, does it? The contention is over the usefulness and accuracy of the starting data, but both approaches require we come up with the factors that influence the core value and market value of the coins we want to evaluate. So how about we discuss those rather than quibble over the starting point? So, let's get back to the listing and then on to quantifying the effect of the CV and MV factors, regardless of how they will be used.

[seal006]

I agree. I feel that the data could be useful to us all.

[coppercoins]

Seal006 - Still awaiting an email from you regarding the following:

seal006 - Contact me regarding, "I have a whole lot of the ones I cannot sell, and haven't sold, so to me really hold no value."

I would like to know what it is that you have a lot of that has no value.

Don't post in the forum, just send an email. cd@coppercoins.com

[seal006]

Seal006 - Still awaiting an email from you regarding the following:

seal006 - Contact me regarding, "I have a whole lot of the ones I cannot sell, and haven't sold, so to me really hold no value."

I would like to know what it is that you have a lot of that has no value.

Don't post in the forum, just send an email. cd@coppercoins.com

Sorry Chuck, I did not see that request before. I am sending an email now.