How much is my coin worth?

[ray_parkhurst]

LOL, and I know exactly why. But this is what I was wanting to get at. So where are you going to pull figures if you do not like auctions?

I think I have confused you. I have no issue with using auction results to set a price for a coin. But I do have an issue using them to determine a coin's value. Value and price are not the same thing. Value is a relatively fixed and stable quantity based on mostly objective factors. It has the quality of being good for the long term, vetted by experts, and not subject to highly volatile market forces. Price is set by some combination of value mixed with the influences of market forces. What a coin is worth to a particular buyer, for example at auction, further includes that buyer's individual factors, which are usually extremely volatile and subjective.

[ray_parkhurst]

Where does intuition and gut feeling come in? What if you wanted to be the price trend setter because you had the most and best? What about personal sales (coin shops, coin shows, flea markets, etc) that go to online sales and on line sales that go to personal sales? No matter how much data you accumulate for the pricing matrix, it's all history and that is no guarantee to the subjective surroundings of the selling environment of tomorrow. Not being negative, but just throwing some real stuff out there that does make a difference everyday.

Intuition and gut feeling are market factors that can be used to help set price.

Having the most and the best is nice, but you still need to find buyers who feel what you have is worth the price. Having the most and the best are market factors that have no influence on value, just on price.

How a sale changes from online to personal to auction or back has nothing to do with value, but each venue has its own market factors that would affect price.

I agree with you about history not being a predictor of the future, which is why I want to develop a value algorithm that is relatively independent of market factors. The pricing algorithm must take into account up-to-date market factors to be useful.

I suppose another way of looking at it is that value is the price that anyone would pay if everyone knew everything about a coin. This is far too ideal, and doesn't account for individual factors or the fact that we can't know everything about a coin. But the more we can know, and factor into the valuation algorithm, the more accurate the value will be.

[seal006]

I think I have confused you. I have no issue with using auction results to set a price for a coin. But I do have an issue using them to determine a coin's value. Value and price are not the same thing. Value is a relatively fixed and stable quantity based on mostly objective factors. It has the quality of being good for the long term, vetted by experts, and not subject to highly volatile market forces. Price is set by some combination of value mixed with the influences of market forces. What a coin is worth to a particular buyer, for example at auction, further includes that buyer's individual factors, which are usually extremely volatile and subjective.

I understand all of this, but I also feel that price will effect at least perceived value, which would muddy the waters even more.

[ray_parkhurst]

I understand all of this, but I also feel that price will effect at least perceived value, which would muddy the waters even more.

It will, but perceived value is "worth". Waters get very muddy once you get down to a buyer determining what a coin is actually worth to them, ie what they will pay for it. Buyers are often aware of prices realized and use that info to determine what they will pay or bid.

[seal006]

I think this may be where we differ. To me, I think we should concentrate on price, as to at any given moment what something should sell for. At least approximately. Value of the variety will always be "perceived". The only real value in the coin you are looking at is written on the back, and in this economy, even that is wrong.

[ray_parkhurst]

So, enough talk of definitions. Anyone care to try figuring out how much my 56-D RPM #1 is worth?

Let's start with Grade, which is an obvious baseline factor. Best you can from the photos I published at the top of this thread, what would you say the Grade is for this Cent?

I must admit something here and now...I am not a coin dealer, and don't have access to the CDN. But as Seal006 suggested and I agree, the best starting point for a variety (the baseline value) should be GS (ask?) for a non-variety coin of the same grade. Does anyone on the forum have access to this info for a 56-D? Once we determine Grade, then the next step is to pull the non-variety baseline on the GS.

[coppercoins]

Greysheet does not go to 1956 for BU Lincoln cent singles. It stops at 1949.

Your coin is MS65RD.

for a normal 1956D cnt in MS65RD the current values are:

Numismedia: $13.20
PCGS: $5
NGC: $13.20
Coin Values: $10*

* Coin Values lists this RPM in MS65RD at $100.

[ray_parkhurst]

I think this may be where we differ. To me, I think we should concentrate on price, as to at any given moment what something should sell for. At least approximately. Value of the variety will always be "perceived". The only real value in the coin you are looking at is written on the back, and in this economy, even that is wrong.

Yes, we are diametrically opposed on this. I believe value is an innate baseline. I suppose if you had data on enough sales, then you could indeed set a baseline price that may be an average of those sales. But that is inherently out of date, and if someone tries to set a price based on that it will likely either be too high or too low for the current market conditions.

I also am wondering why you would call something written on the back of the coin its "real value"? What the seller writes on the back very likely has little relationship to its real value.

[ray_parkhurst]

Greysheet does not go to 1956 for BU Lincoln cent singles. It stops at 1949.

Your coin is MS65RD.

for a normal 1956D cnt in MS65RD the current values are:

Numismedia: $13.20
PCGS: $5
NGC: $13.20
Coin Values: $10*

* Coin Values lists this RPM in MS65RD at $100.

Thanks Chuck, now we have some data to discuss.

So, does anyone have a suggestion on which value to use as the non-variety baseline? And these are certified prices I assume, so what about this coin, which is raw?

[seal006]

Yes, we are diametrically opposed on this. I believe value is an innate baseline. I suppose if you had data on enough sales, then you could indeed set a baseline price that may be an average of those sales. But that is inherently out of date, and if someone tries to set a price based on that it will likely either be too high or too low for the current market conditions.

Ray, I was an economics major in college, far to many years ago. Value is theory. It is not tangible. Arriving at value can be done 1000 ways by 1000 different people, with 1000 different results. The price some paid for an item is tangible. It is real. At any given moment that is what it sold for. Therefore it is the only reliable data in something like this when discussing $$. This is why guides are referred to as "price" guides, not "values" guide.

I also am wondering why you would call something written on the back of the coin its "real value"? What the seller writes on the back very likely has little relationship to its real value.

Not what is on the back of a flip. I am talking the coin itself. "ONE CENT". True value. I give you a quarter, you give me 25 cents.

[ray_parkhurst]

Ray, I was an economics major in college, far to many years ago. Value is theory. It is not tangible. Arriving at value can be done 1000 ways by 1000 different people, with 1000 different results. The price some paid for an item is tangible. It is real. At any given moment that is what it sold for. Therefore it is the only reliable data in something like this when discussing $$. This is why guides are referred to as "price" guides, not "values" guide.

Yes, and a good theory beats bad pricing data any day of the week, especially when the theory is based on solid fundamentals.

By your reasoning, the 97 DDO is worth $700, correct? So all the price guides should immediately be edited to reflect a value of $700? Then when the next one does not sell for $700, the guides would be immediately edited to reflect a value of $0.00. I don't think that sort of volatility makes sense to base a pricing guide on.

Not what is on the back of a flip. I am talking the coin itself. "ONE CENT". True value. I give you a quarter, you give me 25 cents.

Ahh, so sorry, I misunderstood.

[jallengomez]

I don't see how you could establish any baseline value except perhaps for the metal content. Even that fluctuates. Value needs someone to value it. Value assumes an answer to the question "of value to whom?". You're never going to be able to boil value down to something that is intrinsic.

[seal006]

By your reasoning, the 97 DDO is worth $700, correct? So all the price guides should immediately be edited to reflect a value of $700? Then when the next one does not sell for $700, the guides would be immediately edited to reflect a value of $0.00. I don't think that sort of volatility makes sense to base a pricing guide on.

No, like what was stated before, you throw out the wild cards. Prices that make you go huh? If they are way over the top higher than the history has shown, or way lower.

[seal006]

I don't see how you could establish any baseline value except perhaps for the metal content. Even that fluctuates. Value needs someone to value it. Value assumes an answer to the question "of value to whom?". You're never going to be able to boil value down to something that is intrinsic.

That is it in a nutshell. Thanks Jody.

[ray_parkhurst]

I don't see how you could establish any baseline value except perhaps for the metal content. Even that fluctuates. Value needs someone to value it. Value assumes an answer to the question "of value to whom?". You're never going to be able to boil value down to something that is intrinsic.

In my first post on this thread I stated:

"Let's say that the baseline value published in the price guide, and in consideration of the market factors, is such that when a coin is offered for that price, it will be of interest to 10% of SCs, and that at least 3 SCs would bid on the coin."

So if the baseline value is $35, and the market factors skew the asking price to $70, it would get immediate attention from 10% of specialist collectors, and if sold at auction would have 3 competitive bidders. For sake of argument, the first bidder thinks the coin is worth $90, but drops out of the bidding when the second bidder, who thinks the coin is worth $2000, goes to $100. A bidding war ensues, and even though he only believes the coin is worth $2000, he overbids to $2200. But the winning bidder, who thinks the coin is worth $4000 or more, takes it for $2250.