How much is my coin worth?

[coppercoins]

One sale does a value not make. I wouldn't imagine trying to use actual sales in any sort of formula for value until I had at least a dozen recorded sales, auctions or otherwise, for the same die variety in similar grades.

[seal006]

One sale does a value not make. I wouldn't imagine trying to use actual sales in any sort of formula for value until I had at least a dozen recorded sales, auctions or otherwise, for the same die variety in similar grades.

BINGO!! We have a winner. This is spot on exactly what we want. In turn over time that price will fluctuate as more are put up for sale, or as a certain variety gets "hot." I still feel you must toss out all of the overly high and overly low sales, unless a pattern starts to form one direction or the other.

[jallengomez]

For sake of argument, the first bidder thinks the coin is worth $90, but drops out of the bidding when the second bidder, who thinks the coin is worth $2000, goes to $100. A bidding war ensues, and even though he only believes the coin is worth $2000, he overbids to $2200. But the winning bidder, who thinks the coin is worth $4000 or more, takes it for $2250.

And therein lies a big decision that can only be based upon previous auctions, and that is gambling to an extent on how much people are willing to pay. A lot of these varieties do come down to highly specialized collectors, and the population of such collectors is small to say the least. If I see that collectors have been willing to pay $1000 for a variety(at a specific grade by specific TPG), there is no way I'm going to start my auction at $15 in the hopes that it hits the radar screen of more than one collector willing to pay $1000(or more). If I do that in this very niche and small world of variety collecting, I may darn well end up selling the coin for $15 because only one bidder showed up, meaning that I potentially left $985 on the table with a buyer who was willing to pay much more. I've seen this happen at Teletrade and elsewhere. A coin that's been going for several hundred dollars all of a sudden flies off the shelf for a fraction of previous prices. It could be due to more information coming into the market, but in a lot of cases I think it was simply a seller who did not ask enough for the coin and didn't get enough bidders for an accurate representation of value. That doesn't mean the coin is now worth only $15 or so, it just means some poor sap didn't ask what people were willing to pay for it.

[seal006]

Very well said, Jody. Now come up with an algorithm that can tell us how much of the final sale price was the slab responsible for. That way we can tell how much our raw coins are worth. Also another algorithm to deciding what that coin in MS64 sold for translates into lower grades.

[jcuve]

Looking at past sales they are all over the place. I could see $50-$150 raw depending on the perceived grade (MS64/65RD), die state (looks like LMDS/LDS), quality of photos (great), how many other examples are up at the same time (no idea) and maybe, just maybe, the color of the sky. My best guess is $75-125 at an eBay auction - and I am being intuitive. The great photos will probably keep it in the higher part of my estimate.

[ray_parkhurst]

Looking at past sales they are all over the place. I could see $50-$150 raw depending on the perceived grade (MS64/65RD), die state (looks like LMDS/LDS), quality of photos (great), how many other examples are up at the same time (no idea) and maybe, just maybe, the color of the sky. My best guess is $75-125 at an eBay auction - and I am being intuitive. The great photos will probably keep it in the higher part of my estimate.

More meat for the discussion!

So additional factors the specialist collector should consider and that affect valuation are:

- perceived grade for raw coins
- die state
- quality of photo

Are there other factors to consider?

How would we compare the value of RPM#1 vs RPM#2 for instance?

[coppercoins]

In my opinion RPM#1 and RPM#2 are different animals entirely, while RPM#2 and RPM#3 are similar. This is because there is a different market segment driving RPM#1 than RPM#2 and RPM#3. We must keep apples in one basket and not let the oranges skew our results for the apples.

[jallengomez]

With Ray's photos, it'll probably sell for more than one in a PCGS slab.

[jcuve]

More meat for the discussion!

So additional factors the specialist collector should consider and that affect valuation are:

- perceived grade for raw coins
- die state
- quality of photo

Are there other factors to consider?

How would we compare the value of RPM#1 vs RPM#2 for instance?

How many are for sale (prior to it being listed; you cannot control listings that go up after).
Timing: time of year can impact sales. With auctions, day of the week, time of day it ends.
Provided information on the variety. Neither too much, nor too little.

And comparing RPMs won't work for RPM-001

[coppercoins]

I will not be going further with this discussion in an open forum. I have been working through all of the possibilities in my head, in computer files, and on paper for years, and intend to use that information to publish a guide that will finally lay to rest the mystery as to what die varieties are worth. The more information I release here the closer people can get to my formula, which I consider to be one of the most closely held secrets of my entire life. I have let a couple of people in on what it is and how I intend to do it, but the last place I want to publish my formula (or any part of it) is on a public forum.

[seal006]

I think we all understand and can appreciate that Chuck. I do thank you for getting as involved in this discussion as you have. Chris once told me in a post that the people who make guides are not sellers. I completely disagree. I feel one must have first hand knowledge of any subject in order to contribute something to it. Doesn't this mean the publishers at Krause are coin dealers? No. It means who they get the info they publish from is.

[ray_parkhurst]

In my opinion RPM#1 and RPM#2 are different animals entirely, while RPM#2 and RPM#3 are similar. This is because there is a different market segment driving RPM#1 than RPM#2 and RPM#3. We must keep apples in one basket and not let the oranges skew our results for the apples.

Agreed, but that's what I'm interested in determining, ie how the differences between the coins affects their value.

[ray_parkhurst]

How many are for sale (prior to it being listed; you cannot control listings that go up after).
Timing: time of year can impact sales. With auctions, day of the week, time of day it ends.
Provided information on the variety. Neither too much, nor too little.

And comparing RPMs won't work for RPM-001

Why is RPM-001 so special? I know it is quite dramatic, but so are a bunch of others in the Top50/Top100 lists.

The factors you list are good ones, though tough to quantify impact. Not impossible, but tough. How about more factors related to the coin itself rather than the sales method?

[jallengomez]

Why is RPM-001 so special? I know it is quite dramatic, but so are a bunch of others in the Top50/Top100 lists.

Three words: Cherry Picker's Guide

[coppercoins]

It's actually two words..."Cherrypickers' Guide"